How can you measure how likely it is for an event to occur? Perhaps you are interested in knowing about how likely it is to rain on a given day in anticipation for an outdoor event you are planning. Or an insurance analyst might want to know how likely it is for an earthquake or hurricane to occur close to the site of a skyscraper. Such practical situations point to the need to be precise about our description of the likelihood of events and the uncertainty surrounding them. From the Wikipedia entries on “”Probability”” and “”Artificial Intelligence””:nnProbability is the branch of mathematics concerning events and numerical descriptions of how likely they are to occur. The theory of probability is a representation of its concepts in formal terms.nnMany problems in AI (including in reasoning, planning, learning, perception, and robotics) require the agent to operate with incomplete or uncertain information. AI researchers have devised a number of tools to solve these problems using methods from probability theory and economics.nnProbability theory is required to describe quantum phenomena. A revolutionary discovery of early 20th century physics was the random character of all physical processes that occur at sub-atomic scales and are governed by the laws of quantum mechanics.nnProbability theory is applied in everyday life in risk assessment and modeling. The insurance industry and markets use actuarial science to determine pricing and make trading decisions. Governments apply probabilistic methods in environmental regulation, entitlement analysis, and financial regulation.nnIn addition to financial assessment, probability can be used to analyze trends in biology (e.g., disease spread) as well as ecology.nnAnother significant application of probability theory in everyday life is reliability. Many consumer products, such as automobiles and consumer electronics, use reliability theory in product design to reduce the probability of failure. Failure probability may influence a manufacturer’s decisions on a product’s warranty.
